President Cyril Ramaphosa and President Donald Trump Image: The Presidency of the Republic of South Africa

On Wednesday, 21 May 2025, Cyril Ramaphosa and his official delegation (consisting of Cabinet Ministers Ronald Lamola, Parks Tau, Khumbudzo Ntshavheni, and John Steenhuisen), supported by South African golfers Ernie Els and Retief Goosen, Richemont Founder and Remgro Chair Johann Rupert, and Congress of SA Trade Unions President Zingiswa Losi, arrived at the White House to meet with President of the United States (US), Donald Trump.

The intention of the meeting was to ease tensions which had been growing between the two countries in recent years. 

Much of this initial meeting centred around the spectacle that was Trump’s ambush of Ramaphosa, accusing him of allowing white genocide to occur in South Africa. Yet, if we look beyond the façade of fictitious claims of genocidal acts, what we witnessed was the meeting of two business tycoons-cum-presidents at the start of what will certainly be a protracted set of tentative trade talks. 

Some may consider the presence of South African golfers as part of the delegation, as well as Ramaphosa’s choice of gift (a book on South Africa’s golf courses) as a desperate attempt to appeal to Trump’s golf fanaticism.

However, being a successful businessman himself and most likely familiar with the phrase that “business deals are closed on the golf course”, Ramaphosa’s diplomatic offerings clearly signalled his intentions for his Working Visit: trade and investment.  

Let us begin by looking beyond the carefully choreographed charade displayed by President Trump at Ramaphosa’s visit to the White House and decoding the diplomatic subtext.

Ramaphosa’s domestic foreign policy imperative

A state’s foreign policy and practice of diplomacy are always guided by its national interest. This can be said of Ramaphosa’s joint briefing with Trump at the Oval Office. For Ramaphosa, the purpose of his Working Visit was informed by one of South Africa’s most pressing socioeconomic imperatives of inclusive economic growth through job creation. Ramaphosa sought to achieve this by rekindling South Africa’s strained relationship with the US in a bid to secure trade and investment. It is no secret that South Africa’s relationship with the US has grown cold over recent years, stemming from the Lady R Saga in 2023, where South Africa permitted a sanctioned Russian cargo ship to dock at Simon’s Town Naval Base. Certainly, South Africa’s decision to take Israel to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for alleged genocidal acts saw the US, under President Trump, respond by signing an executive order in February 2025 to cut off financial aid to South Africa. 

Image: The Presidency of the Republic of South Africa

Ramaphosa drew on his wealth of experience, having been the African National Congress’ (ANC) chief negotiator during the country’s democratic transition, together with his business acumen and political savviness, to placate Trump during his White House visit. He cleverly leveraged South Africa’s current Group of 20 (G20) presidency, and the fact that it will be passed on to the US in November 2025, as an opportunity to invite Trump to the Johannesburg G20 Summit. While Trump has notoriously shown his disdain for multilateral fora, his acceptance of the invitation may see the US resume its leadership position within international organisations and institutions.    

Ramaphosa navigated his way through Trump’s diplomatic minefield by tapping into South Africa’s soft power arsenal. He did so by referencing former President Nelson Mandela’s peacemaking teachings, stressing the importance of open dialogue in resolving disputes. Taken together, these diplomatic tools will serve Ramaphosa well in the future to warm relations with the US and deepen existing trade partnerships.     

Renegotiating AGOA 2.0

Considering the strained US-South Africa relationship, which has been exacerbated by the recent plight of 59 white South Africa refugees to the US citing ‘white’ genocide and misinformation surrounding South Africa’s land expropriation policies, the prospect of the US revoking South Africa’s preferential trade status under the African Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA) has never been more tangible. The 35-year-long trade agreement will be expiring in September this year, and failure to revise and resuscitate a similar trade arrangement with the US will have significant impacts on South Africa’s economy. 

Since its inception in 2000 up until 2024, South Africa has certainly been the largest non-crude export beneficiary under AGOA, boasting US$55.9 billion in exports. Figures from 2024 show that South Africa’s exports to the US accounted for 13.3% of its total global exports while making up a paltry 0.44% of the US’ total imports. 

The cancellation of AGOA would have severe ramifications for South Africa’s economy (particularly in light of Trump’s recent tariff hikes): It is anticipated that the country’s economic growth would contract by 0.4 – 0.5%, inflation would rise by 0.5% and the value of the Rand would weaken between 3 – 4%.  

South Africa’s automotive industry is expected to be hit the hardest if AGOA is scrapped. The sector provides jobs to over 100,000 people directly and 400,000 indirectly. In 2023, it contributed 14.7% to South Africa’s total exports. In 2024, 47% of South Africa’s total exports to the US through AGOA came from the automotive sector. 

Image: The Presidency of the Republic of South Africa

That being said, the loss of AGOA would have a significant impact on the US, which has come to rely on South Africa for much of its critical minerals – a point which Ramaphosa was sure to remark in his sit-down with Trump at the Oval Office. South Africa provides the US with 12 of its critical minerals. South Africa’s total mineral products and precious metals exported to the US in 2024 amounted to R65.3 million. Unsurprising then, platinum group minerals (PMGs), which include coal, gold, manganese and chrome, accounting for 76.3% of this total, were exempted from Trump’s 30% reciprocal tariff announced on 2 April 2025. 

South Africa could easily direct its attention towards its active external trade partners in the Global South should a revised AGOA not come to fruition. The infamous expanding BRICS+ group comes to mind as an appropriate alternative. However, it is important to note that South Africa does not enjoy a favourable balance of trade with any of the original BRICS partners as it does with the US. Figures from 2019 – 2023 show that South Africa’s trade surplus with the US has increased 45.6% annually. In contrast, it continuously suffers an annual trade deficit with Brazil (-6.2%), Russia (-14.2%), India (-279.4%), and China (-14.9%) over that same period.  

Future US-SA relations: Will economic benefits trump political principles?

Ramaphosa’s visit to the White House brought into the spotlight the increasing presence and influence of non-state actors in international relations and, indeed, in domestic politics. The very presence (and input) of two business moguls, Johann Rupert and Elon Musk in attendance at the Oval Office meeting underscores this point. Rupert, in particular, made a point of requesting technological help from Trump and Musk to assist with South Africa’s high crime rates. He emphatically noted that, “We need technological help, we need Starlink at every little police station, we need drones… we need your help to stop these awful killings.”  

To date, there has been much controversy surrounding the operation of Musk’s Starlink in South Africa. This, on the basis that the company does not comply with South Africa’s Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (B-BBEE) requirement of 30% black ownership. 

While Ramaphosa acknowledged South Africa as being, “a sovereign and independent nation”, during his visit to the White House, the proposed easing of established B-BBEE licensing requirements for companies such as Starlink calls into question the extent to which the country does exercise complete autonomy in matters of domestic policy in the face of global capital. 

Concluding Remarks

‘State sovereignty’ and ‘autonomy’ are hallmarks of any self-respecting state, and whether South Africa will be willing to vehemently defend these political principles and ideals against the vicissitudes of capitalism is a matter which is still open for debate. 

Nevertheless, we can be proud of Ramaphosa for circumventing a Public Relations disaster at the White House on 21 May, all the while balancing South Africa’s critical domestic needs against pragmatic foreign relations. Ramaphosa returned to South Africa having successfully set the negotiating table for further trade talks with the US. With any luck, these talks may come to a head during Trump’s visit to the country in November, perhaps on one of South Africa’s many golf courses.