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The Role of the Electoral College

The Electoral College is a unique and sometimes controversial feature of the US presidential election process. Established by the Constitution, it consists of 538 electors, with each state allocated a certain number of electors based on its representation in Congress (the sum of its Senators and Representatives). To win the presidency, a candidate must secure a majority of the electoral votes—at least 270.

This system means that the election's outcome is determined not by the national popular vote but by the results in individual states. As a result, candidates often focus their campaigns on swing states—those with a history of fluctuating between Democratic and Republican majorities—because these states can tip the balance of the Electoral College.

“The Electoral College is a process, not a place. It's actually established in the Constitution. I've heard many people in the United States say, let's get rid of the Electoral College. Is that ever going to happen? No. Why? It would take a constitutional amendment to get rid of the Electoral College, and there is no way that the Republican Party will ever agree to a constitutional amendment because they are never going to win a popular vote in the United States,” Prof Uphoff said.
Photographer: The White House

As the 2024 US presidential election draws near, the political landscape is heating up with discussions about the chances of Donald Trump, the Republican Party nominee and Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party nominee.

Former President Trump and current Vice President Harris both have significant political influence, but their paths to victory are shaped not only by their campaigns and public perception but also by the intricate workings of the Electoral College—a process that many South Africans are unclear about.

The Dullah Omar Institute, located in the Faculty of Law at the University of the Western Cape (UWC), recently hosted a seminar in partnership with the University of Missouri (MU) to unpack the historic contest that’s unfolding in the ‘Land of the Free’ and how it would impact South Africa and Africa.

The keynote speaker of the seminar Harris versus Trump: Is more drama to follow? - was Professor Rodney Uphoff, the first Elwood L. Thomas Missouri Endowed Professor of Law at MU, where he also served as the associate dean of academic affairs for three years. He is also an Extraordinary Professor at the UWC Law Faculty. Prof Uphoff set the scene by explaining the US electoral process and the functioning of the Electoral College.

Then he spoke about the current divisions in US politics: “I think it's fair to say partisanship has become a bigger factor in American politics in the last 15 to 20 years than it was previously. And what do I mean by that? When I was growing up, in college and after college, there was not as dramatic a difference between the Republican and Democratic parties. They differed on policies - foreign policy, welfare, taxation, but there wasn't the kind of villainisation that there is now in the United States,” said Prof Uphoff.

“Politics have become so divisive and partisan that people - particularly the far right but also on the far left - are proclaiming that if Biden and now Harris is elected President, it will be the end of the United States as we know it. There are all sorts of conspiracy theories on how the Deep State, and by that, they mean the IRS, the Department of Defense, the FBI and all of the federal employees who are part of the Deep State are going to take away all the rights of individual citizens. They paint and weave a very dramatic story, a very dramatic narrative. They even go as far as to say the Democrats are evil.”

He also clarified why Presidential candidates were not younger; Biden (who has now stepped down as candidate) is 80, and Trump is 78. It all comes down to money or who has the biggest “war chest”, he said.

If someone goes up against the likes of Biden and should lose, it would “probably doom their ability to get nominated again”. Those with the deepest pockets can secure greater campaigns, said Prof Uphoff who declared that he was neither a registered Democrat nor Republican. Like most Americans, he was independent. In his opinion, as things stood, either candidate could take the Oval Office.
 

Why Trump Could Win

Image: The White House
1. Strong Base of Support:

Donald Trump has maintained a strong and loyal base since his initial campaign in 2016. His supporters, often described as fervent and highly motivated, see him as a champion of their values and interests. This base could provide him with a significant advantage, especially in swing states where voter turnout is crucial. Prof Uphoff said: “He's got enormous name recognition. He has celebrity status. He has a lot of cult followers, and I think this is one of the biggest challenges for any democracy; it's certainly a challenge in the United States.”

2. Anti-Establishment Appeal:

Trump's image as an outsider, who challenges the political establishment, continues to appeal to voters disillusioned with traditional politics. His ability to frame himself as a maverick, fighting against a perceived corrupt system could galvanise support among those frustrated with the status quo.

3. Electoral College Advantage:

In both 2016 and 2020, Trump demonstrated an understanding of the Electoral College system, focusing his campaign efforts on winning key battleground states. By securing wins in states with large electoral votes, even if he loses the popular vote, Trump could potentially win the presidency through the Electoral College once again.
 

Why Harris Will Win

Image: The White House
1. Historical Significance:

Kamala Harris represents a historic candidacy as the first female Vice President and the first woman of colour to hold the office. Her election as President would be a groundbreaking moment in US history, potentially mobilising a diverse coalition of voters, including women, minorities, and young people, who are eager for change.

2. Anti-Trump support:

Harris could be propelled to victory just because she opposes Trump. Many former Republican supporters do not believe in Trump’s ‘Make America Great Again’ doctrine and would support Harris. Prof Uphoff said: “There are a lot of anti-Trump voters. My brother-in-law has been a Republican his whole life, but when Trump ran, he switched, and he wouldn't vote for Trump no matter what. And there's a chunk of ex-Republicans who have deserted the party. There are also independents who don't like Trump’s moral behaviour, don't like his ranting and irrational speech-making, and they'll vote against him.”

3. Divisive Rhetoric:

Prof Uphoff pointed out that the more heated vitriol Trump directs at Harris, the greater the chance that some voters might oppose him: “Harris has a chance because Trump has gotten even nastier in the last couple of weeks because Harris seems to be gaining in popularity. The nastier he gets, the more that's going to turn off some of the independent voters. That's one of the concerns of some of the Republican strategists. They're not happy with Trump's and (Trump’s running mate) JD Vance's really negative attacks because they think that's feeding into this sense of many voters that they just don't want any more of this, they're sick of all this nastiness.”
 

Implications for the 2024 Election

Swing States Matter: States like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, and North Carolina could be the deciding factors in the 2024 election. Both Trump and Harris will likely concentrate their efforts on these battlegrounds, knowing that winning these states is crucial for securing the presidency.

Voter Turnout is Key: The Electoral College amplifies the importance of voter turnout in swing states. A candidate could win the national popular vote but lose the election if they fail to secure enough electoral votes. Therefore, both campaigns will invest heavily on grassroots efforts to boost turnout in key areas. Even the weather on election day can influence voter turnout.

Potential for Discrepancy: The 2016 election highlighted the possibility of a candidate winning the Electoral College while losing the popular vote. This scenario, though rare, could happen again, making the Electoral College a critical factor in both Trump's and Harris's strategies.

Fake News: Prof Uphoff said: “The Russians, the Chinese, the Iranians, the North Koreans, all are running an active disinformation campaign using social media and the internet. And for the average American, It's hard to know what is true and what isn't true. That campaign is being run very effectively in support of Donald Trump, and that will be a big factor. Artificial Intelligence has been used to run all sorts of disinformation campaigns, and it's been very effective. It's hard for people not only to tell what the real picture is versus the other picture. It's hard for the average voter in the United States, and I dare say anywhere in the world, to be able to separate fact from fiction when you are bombarded with a lot of misinformation that may well distort the outcome of the next election.”

Professor Rodney Uphoff. Picture courtesy of the University of Missouri

WATCH: Seminar: Harris versus Trump: Is more drama to follow?

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