Flooding after heavy rain at the Waterfront informal settlement in Philippi, Cape Town. Image: Ashraf Hendricks/GroundUpAcademics have warned that world leaders must move beyond reactive disaster responses and adopt proactive flood risk reduction strategies.
Flooding is becoming one of the most serious environmental and socioeconomic threats worldwide.
As human settlements continue to expand and populations grow, the impacts of climate change are becoming more apparent, particularly through the increased frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events.
These changes are overwhelming existing drainage systems, damaging infrastructure, displacing communities, and threatening both lives and livelihoods.
The combined effects of rapid rural and urban development, inadequate infrastructure, and a changing climate make clear the urgent need for strategic and coordinated policy action to manage flood risks. For instance, media and government reports indicate the death toll from the recent devastating June 2025 floods in South Africa rose to one hundred and thousands of homes were destroyed, highlighting the urgent need for accurate and predictive flood modelling technologies and tools (Eyewitness News and the Eastern Cape Provincial Government).
Prof Timothy Dube from the University of the Western Cape (UWC) is the Director at The Institute for Water Studies, and Sibuyisile Pakati (a PhD candidate at UWC) and Dr Cletah Shoko from the University of the Witwatersrand, recently concluded in their research that there is an urgent need to integrate climate projections with flood models. They emphasise the importance of governments adopting more advanced modelling tools, particularly for informal settlements and rural areas.
The study is titled, Integrated flood modelling and risk assessment in urban areas: A review on applications, strengths, limitations and future research directions.
Prof Dube said that while the study had a global scope, in Africa, there are serious technological deficits to accurately predict the likelihood of devastating floods: “Many African cities remain highly vulnerable to flooding due to limited data availability, outdated infrastructure, and the exclusion of informal settlements in urban planning.”
In other regions, the study highlighted best practices and concluded that Asia and Europe continue to lead in flood modelling innovation, with the Netherlands, Japan, and China applying advanced tools in both rural and urban contexts. And in China and India, the integration of remote sensing with hydrological models has significantly improved flood forecasting and emergency planning. These are regions where African governments could emulate flood modelling best practices and adapt them in their countries.
Climate change demands urgent action from the government and disaster management agencies. Prof Dube said: “Governments must shift from reactive disaster response to proactive flood risk reduction by investing in real-time monitoring, community engagement and cross-sector collaboration. Integrating climate change projections into flood risk modelling is essential if cities are to prepare for increasingly intense and frequent weather events.”
New technology, open-source platforms and cloud-based tools can be a lifeline in disaster prevention and management. There are numerous scalable, cost-effective solutions, and they would require that disaster agencies have the capacity and human resources to use and scale these technologies.
Prof Dube said the best use of technology is when it prioritises the best interests of people: “Effective flood modelling, especially here in Africa, must also move beyond technical simulations to include people-centred approaches that reflect the lived realities of vulnerable urban populations.”
In part, this research underscores the critical need for responsible government authorities and relevant stakeholders involved in disaster risk reduction to prioritise the systematic collection and integration of high-quality datasets. This includes the use of accurate digital elevation models, scientifically robust risk assessments, and comprehensive historical flood mapping. Such data is essential for informed decision-making, effective early warning systems, and the development of resilient mitigation strategies. The conclusion is that flood modelling is far too often treated as a technical exercise, with limited integration of urban planning, governance or community perspectives.
Read the full research study HERE.
